Will the current UK Prime Minister still be in office in six months?
Reflects a working majority and no scheduled confidence vote, tempered by ordinary political risk.
Price history
Order book
Simulated depth around the current price.
Recent activity
Market Intelligence
AI verdict: Strong YESThe current UK Prime Minister is more likely than not to remain in office over the next six months, with a working majority and no scheduled confidence vote providing meaningful institutional stability.
Risk & quality signals
Momentum 0 — flat
What's driving it
- Parliamentary majorityYES · 80
A working majority materially reduces the near-term risk of losing a confidence vote or being forced from office through parliamentary arithmetic.
- No imminent formal removal triggerYES · 65
With no scheduled confidence vote indicated, a change would more likely require an unexpected resignation, party leadership challenge, or major political shock.
- Ordinary governing-party riskNO · 40
Polling deterioration, scandals, policy failures, or internal party pressure can still produce leadership turnover even without an election or confidence vote.
- Stable market signals— · 35
The unchanged 71% price, zero momentum, and low-to-moderate volatility suggest participants see no newly apparent catalyst in either direction.
Why it moved
The price is unchanged at 71%, matching the existing AI estimate, while liquidity is relatively high (75/100) and cumulative volume is 1,709 credits; this points to a settled consensus rather than a news-driven repricing
Watch-outs
- An abrupt resignation or health-related departure could bypass parliamentary stability.
- A severe political or economic shock could trigger enough internal pressure for a leadership change.
- The 71% market price may already incorporate political risks not visible in the supplied summary.
- The stated closing timestamp should be checked against the intended six-month evaluation window.
AI-generated intelligence for a paper-trading simulation. Scores are derived from live market data; the analysis is an independent model view that refreshes as the market moves. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
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Paper-trading simulation. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
How this market resolves
Resolves YES if, by the resolution date, the outcome described above is confirmed true by the settlement source. Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Resolution date
- January 19, 2027
- Category
- Politics
- Settlement source
- Official government records & major newswire consensus
This is a paper-trading simulation. Prices are virtual credits and resolution is illustrative — not betting, wagering, or financial advice.
How this market works
- Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and represent the implied probability of the outcome. A YES price of 71¢ means the market implies a 71% chance of YES.
- Each correct share settles at 100¢ when the market resolves. Buy at 71¢ and, if YES is right, you gain 29¢ per share.
- Your trades move the price: buying pushes a side up, selling pushes it down. You can sell any time before close to lock in gains or cut losses.
- The AI estimate is an independent model view. When it differs from the market price, that gap is the “AI edge” shown above.
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