Will the U.S. federal government avoid a shutdown this quarter?
Priced on the current appropriations timeline and negotiation posture. A stopgap deal keeps YES ahead.
Price history
Order book
Simulated depth around the current price.
Recent activity
Market Intelligence
AI verdict: Lean YESAvoiding a shutdown remains modestly more likely than not because a stopgap agreement is a viable fallback, but the 63% market price already reflects that path and leaves meaningful negotiation risk.
Risk & quality signals
Momentum 0 — flat
What's driving it
- Stopgap fallbackYES · 80
The market details explicitly indicate that a continuing-resolution-style stopgap would preserve a YES outcome, giving negotiators a practical off-ramp from a l
- Appropriations bargaining riskNO · 68
A shutdown can still result if disputes over spending levels or policy provisions prevent leaders from assembling enough votes before the relevant funding lapse
- Market baseline— · 55
The 63% YES price and existing 63% AI estimate indicate that the central expectation is already a narrowly favorable compromise rather than a decisive consensus
- Stable trading signals— · 35
Zero momentum and low-to-moderate volatility (24/100), alongside solid virtual liquidity, suggest no current market repricing toward either an imminent deal or
Why it moved
The price is unchanged at 63%, exactly matching the prior price and existing AI estimate; with 1,711 credits of virtual volume, the lack of momentum likely reflects stable expectations that a stopgap remains possible,
Watch-outs
- Negotiations could harden around policy riders or topline spending demands.
- A short timeline or procedural delays could make even an agreed stopgap difficult to pass in time.
- The question's precise funding-deadline and quarter definitions matter: a shutdown risk can shift sharply near the
AI-generated intelligence for a paper-trading simulation. Scores are derived from live market data; the analysis is an independent model view that refreshes as the market moves. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
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How this market resolves
Resolves YES if, by the resolution date, the outcome described above is confirmed true by the settlement source. Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Resolution date
- September 21, 2026
- Category
- Politics
- Settlement source
- Official government records & major newswire consensus
This is a paper-trading simulation. Prices are virtual credits and resolution is illustrative — not betting, wagering, or financial advice.
How this market works
- Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and represent the implied probability of the outcome. A YES price of 63¢ means the market implies a 63% chance of YES.
- Each correct share settles at 100¢ when the market resolves. Buy at 63¢ and, if YES is right, you gain 37¢ per share.
- Your trades move the price: buying pushes a side up, selling pushes it down. You can sell any time before close to lock in gains or cut losses.
- The AI estimate is an independent model view. When it differs from the market price, that gap is the “AI edge” shown above.
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