Will a new U.S. Supreme Court justice be confirmed this year?
No pending vacancy has been announced, so confirmation odds stay low absent a surprise retirement.
Price history
Order book
Simulated depth around the current price.
Recent activity
Market Intelligence
AI verdict: Strong NOA 2026 Supreme Court confirmation is possible but remains unlikely without an announced vacancy, leaving the market’s 20% YES price broadly reasonable.
Risk & quality signals
Momentum 0 — flat
What's driving it
- No announced vacancyNO · 75
A confirmation normally requires a retirement, death, or other departure first, and none is currently pending.
- Time remaining in 2026YES · 35
There is still substantial time before the December close for an unexpected vacancy and a Senate confirmation process to occur.
- Senate-confirmation uncertaintyNO · 30
Even if a seat opens, the timing and political conditions needed to complete a confirmation within the calendar year are uncertain.
- Market and AI alignment— · 20
The unchanged 20% market price matches the existing 20% AI estimate, with solid liquidity but no momentum indicating a new consensus shift.
Why it moved
The price is unchanged at 20%, consistent with the absence of a known vacancy or other stated catalyst; 1,251 credits of cumulative virtual volume and 73/100 liquidity suggest the level has some participation behind it,
Watch-outs
- An unexpected retirement, death, or resignation could rapidly make YES much more likely.
- A vacancy late in the year may not leave enough time for Senate confirmation before the market closes.
- Public reports about justices’ retirement intentions or Senate scheduling could move odds sharply before any formal seat
AI-generated intelligence for a paper-trading simulation. Scores are derived from live market data; the analysis is an independent model view that refreshes as the market moves. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
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How this market resolves
Resolves YES if, by the resolution date, the outcome described above is confirmed true by the settlement source. Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Resolution date
- December 20, 2026
- Category
- Politics
- Settlement source
- Official government records & major newswire consensus
This is a paper-trading simulation. Prices are virtual credits and resolution is illustrative — not betting, wagering, or financial advice.
How this market works
- Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and represent the implied probability of the outcome. A YES price of 20¢ means the market implies a 20% chance of YES.
- Each correct share settles at 100¢ when the market resolves. Buy at 20¢ and, if YES is right, you gain 80¢ per share.
- Your trades move the price: buying pushes a side up, selling pushes it down. You can sell any time before close to lock in gains or cut losses.
- The AI estimate is an independent model view. When it differs from the market price, that gap is the “AI edge” shown above.
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