Will U.S. unemployment stay below 4.5% in the next report?
Labor market is cooling gradually; a sub-4.5% reading remains the base case.
Price history
Order book
Simulated depth around the current price.
Recent activity
Market Intelligence
AI verdict: Lean YESA sub-4.5% U.S. unemployment reading remains modestly more likely than not, but gradual labor-market cooling leaves meaningful risk of a 4.5% or higher print.
Risk & quality signals
Momentum 0 — flat
What's driving it
- Current base caseYES · 45
The market details explicitly characterize gradual cooling with a sub-4.5% reading still as the base case, consistent with the 67% market and existing AI marks.
- Cooling labor marketNO · 32
Continued softening in labor demand can raise unemployment enough to breach the threshold, especially because the question requires a reading strictly below 4.5
- Threshold proximityNO · 16
A 4.5% print resolves NO, so even a small deterioration from a near-threshold unemployment rate would change the outcome.
- Stable market signals— · 7
Low volatility (12/100), zero momentum, and relatively strong liquidity (74/100) suggest no current consensus shift away from the 67% baseline.
Why it moved
The price is unchanged at 67%, exactly matching the prior price and existing AI estimate; with low volatility, neutral momentum, and 1,586 credits of virtual volume, the market appears to be maintaining its base-case pre
Watch-outs
- A weaker-than-expected payrolls or household-survey result could lift the unemployment rate to 4.5% or above.
- Monthly unemployment data can move materially on labor-force participation and household-survey noise, not just layoffs.
- Revisions or uncertainty over which scheduled release is the relevant “next report” can affect interpretation near the 4
AI-generated intelligence for a paper-trading simulation. Scores are derived from live market data; the analysis is an independent model view that refreshes as the market moves. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
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How this market resolves
Resolves YES if, by the resolution date, the outcome described above is confirmed true by the settlement source. Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Resolution date
- August 22, 2026
- Category
- Economics
- Settlement source
- Official releases (BLS, BEA, Eurostat) at first print
This is a paper-trading simulation. Prices are virtual credits and resolution is illustrative — not betting, wagering, or financial advice.
How this market works
- Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and represent the implied probability of the outcome. A YES price of 67¢ means the market implies a 67% chance of YES.
- Each correct share settles at 100¢ when the market resolves. Buy at 67¢ and, if YES is right, you gain 33¢ per share.
- Your trades move the price: buying pushes a side up, selling pushes it down. You can sell any time before close to lock in gains or cut losses.
- The AI estimate is an independent model view. When it differs from the market price, that gap is the “AI edge” shown above.
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