Will U.S. GDP growth beat consensus next quarter?
Growth is decelerating; beats and misses are roughly equally likely.
Price history
Order book
Simulated depth around the current price.
Recent activity
Market Intelligence
AI verdict: Toss-upA GDP growth beat next quarter is slightly less likely than even, with deceleration offset by the historical near-balance between upside and downside surprises.
Risk & quality signals
Momentum 0 — flat
What's driving it
- Decelerating growth backdropNO · 62
The stated deceleration in growth modestly raises the chance that reported growth falls short of consensus rather than exceeds it.
- Balanced surprise base rate— · 55
With beats and misses described as roughly equally likely, there is no strong fundamental edge away from a near-50% estimate.
- Market and AI alignment— · 42
The 47% market price exactly matches the existing 47% AI estimate, indicating no current disagreement signal to exploit.
- Stable trading signals— · 28
Zero momentum and low 11/100 volatility suggest participants have not recently repriced the outlook toward either a beat or miss.
Why it moved
There has been no price movement: the YES price remains 47%, matching the AI estimate, while relatively high 77/100 liquidity and 2,317 credits of virtual volume suggest this stability reflects a broadly settled, though仍
Watch-outs
- Consensus forecasts may be revised materially before the release, changing the hurdle for a beat.
- A single component such as consumption, inventories, trade, or government spending can drive a GDP surprise despite a te
- Initial GDP estimates are subject to revisions, and market settlement rules may depend on a particular release or fore
- Low volatility can reverse quickly if new macro data materially alter growth expectations.
AI-generated intelligence for a paper-trading simulation. Scores are derived from live market data; the analysis is an independent model view that refreshes as the market moves. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
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Paper-trading simulation. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
How this market resolves
Resolves YES if, by the resolution date, the outcome described above is confirmed true by the settlement source. Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Resolution date
- October 26, 2026
- Category
- Economics
- Settlement source
- Official releases (BLS, BEA, Eurostat) at first print
This is a paper-trading simulation. Prices are virtual credits and resolution is illustrative — not betting, wagering, or financial advice.
How this market works
- Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and represent the implied probability of the outcome. A YES price of 47¢ means the market implies a 47% chance of YES.
- Each correct share settles at 100¢ when the market resolves. Buy at 47¢ and, if YES is right, you gain 53¢ per share.
- Your trades move the price: buying pushes a side up, selling pushes it down. You can sell any time before close to lock in gains or cut losses.
- The AI estimate is an independent model view. When it differs from the market price, that gap is the “AI edge” shown above.
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