Will U.S. headline CPI come in below 3% year-over-year in the next print?
Base effects and shelter disinflation put the next print near the 3% line.
Price history
Order book
Simulated depth around the current price.
Recent activity
Market Intelligence
AI verdict: Toss-upThe next headline CPI print appears genuinely close to the 3% threshold, leaving the probability of a sub-3% reading essentially balanced but slightly supported by stated base effects and shelter disinflation.
Risk & quality signals
Momentum 0 — flat
What's driving it
- Near-threshold setup— · 90
The stated expectation that CPI will land near 3% means small month-to-month price surprises or rounding can determine the outcome.
- Base effectsYES · 65
Favorable comparisons with the prior year can mechanically lower the year-over-year headline rate even without unusually weak current monthly inflation.
- Shelter disinflationYES · 60
Further easing in shelter inflation would be important because shelter is a large component of headline CPI.
- Monthly inflation and energy sensitivityNO · 55
A firmer monthly reading in energy or other volatile headline components could keep the annual rate at or above 3% despite broader disinflation.
- Strict reported thresholdNO · 45
The market resolves on the published year-over-year figure, so a reading reported as exactly 3.0% would not satisfy 'below 3%'.
Why it moved
There has been no price movement: the YES price remains 52%, matching the existing AI estimate, while low volatility (10/100), neutral momentum, and moderate cumulative virtual volume (420 credits) suggest participants’
Watch-outs
- An exactly 3.0% published result is a material boundary risk.
- Energy and other volatile headline categories can alter the print independently of shelter trends.
- The timing and magnitude of shelter disinflation may differ from expectations.
- With the outcome near a rounding-sensitive cutoff, forecast error is inherently high.
AI-generated intelligence for a paper-trading simulation. Scores are derived from live market data; the analysis is an independent model view that refreshes as the market moves. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
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Paper-trading simulation. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
How this market resolves
Resolves YES if, by the resolution date, the outcome described above is confirmed true by the settlement source. Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Resolution date
- August 22, 2026
- Category
- Economics
- Settlement source
- Official releases (BLS, BEA, Eurostat) at first print
This is a paper-trading simulation. Prices are virtual credits and resolution is illustrative — not betting, wagering, or financial advice.
How this market works
- Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and represent the implied probability of the outcome. A YES price of 52¢ means the market implies a 52% chance of YES.
- Each correct share settles at 100¢ when the market resolves. Buy at 52¢ and, if YES is right, you gain 48¢ per share.
- Your trades move the price: buying pushes a side up, selling pushes it down. You can sell any time before close to lock in gains or cut losses.
- The AI estimate is an independent model view. When it differs from the market price, that gap is the “AI edge” shown above.
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