Will this year rank among the five warmest on record?
The long-term warming trend and current anomalies make a top-five finish likely.
Price history
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Simulated depth around the current price.
Recent activity
Market Intelligence
AI verdict: Strong YESA top-five global-temperature ranking for 2026 is more likely than not because the long-run warming baseline leaves relatively little room below the recent warmest years, though year-to-year ocean and atmospheric variability still matters.
Risk & quality signals
Momentum 0 — flat
What's driving it
- Long-term warming baselineYES · 88
Global temperatures have risen enough that many recent calendar years occupy the historical top rankings, supporting a top-five outcome.
- Annual climate variabilityNO · 55
ENSO evolution, ocean-temperature changes, volcanic or aerosol effects, and weather variability can shift a single year’s final ranking by several places.
- Ranking cutoff is competitiveNO · 46
The five warmest years are clustered at exceptionally high temperatures, so a modest cooling relative to recent records could move 2026 outside the top five.
- Market and model alignment— · 30
The 73% market price exactly matches the existing AI estimate, indicating no visible disagreement in the currently available information.
Why it moved
The price is unchanged at 73%, with zero momentum, low volatility (8/100), and reasonably strong virtual liquidity (73/100); this suggests participants have not seen sufficiently decisive new temperature evidence to re-r
Watch-outs
- The question should be resolved against a specified global dataset, since NASA, NOAA, Berkeley Earth, Copernicus, and W
- Most of 2026 remains unobserved at this point, so the final ranking cannot be inferred solely from the warming trend.
- A sustained cooling phase in major climate drivers could lower the annual anomaly enough to miss a tightly packed top-f
AI-generated intelligence for a paper-trading simulation. Scores are derived from live market data; the analysis is an independent model view that refreshes as the market moves. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
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Paper-trading simulation. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
How this market resolves
Resolves YES if, by the resolution date, the outcome described above is confirmed true by the settlement source. Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Resolution date
- December 30, 2026
- Category
- Climate
- Settlement source
- NOAA / NASA / Copernicus official datasets
This is a paper-trading simulation. Prices are virtual credits and resolution is illustrative — not betting, wagering, or financial advice.
How this market works
- Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and represent the implied probability of the outcome. A YES price of 73¢ means the market implies a 73% chance of YES.
- Each correct share settles at 100¢ when the market resolves. Buy at 73¢ and, if YES is right, you gain 27¢ per share.
- Your trades move the price: buying pushes a side up, selling pushes it down. You can sell any time before close to lock in gains or cut losses.
- The AI estimate is an independent model view. When it differs from the market price, that gap is the “AI edge” shown above.
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