Will a Category 5 hurricane form this season?
Warm sea-surface temperatures raise the odds of at least one Cat-5 in an active basin.
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Simulated depth around the current price.
Recent activity
Market Intelligence
AI verdict: Toss-upA Category 5 hurricane is slightly more likely than not under the market’s warm-water premise, but the unspecified basin and substantial storm-to-storm variability keep the estimate close to the 55% market price.
Risk & quality signals
Momentum 0 — flat
What's driving it
- Warm ocean conditionsYES · 34
Above-normal sea-surface temperatures can support the exceptional ocean heat content needed for rapid intensification to Category 5 strength.
- Seasonal storm opportunityYES · 24
An active basin and a full season through November provide multiple opportunities for at least one favorable-track, low-shear intensification event.
- Rare intensity thresholdNO · 30
Category 5 is an extreme threshold, and warm water alone does not ensure a storm avoids wind shear, dry air, eyewall cycles, or land interaction.
- Definition and basin ambiguity— · 20
The question does not specify the basin or operational intensity convention, which materially affects the historical base rate and makes a precise forecast less
Why it moved
The price is unchanged at 55%, matching the existing AI estimate, while low volatility (15/100), neutral momentum, and reasonably high virtual liquidity (72/100) suggest no new market-wide information has shifted the key
Watch-outs
- The relevant basin and exact meaning of “this season” are not stated; an Atlantic-only interpretation could have a very
- Seasonal forecasts cannot reliably predict the environmental conditions along the path of the strongest individual storm
- A late-season change in wind shear, dry-air outbreaks, or large-scale climate patterns could quickly alter the odds
AI-generated intelligence for a paper-trading simulation. Scores are derived from live market data; the analysis is an independent model view that refreshes as the market moves. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
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Paper-trading simulation. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
How this market resolves
Resolves YES if, by the resolution date, the outcome described above is confirmed true by the settlement source. Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Resolution date
- November 20, 2026
- Category
- Climate
- Settlement source
- NOAA / NASA / Copernicus official datasets
This is a paper-trading simulation. Prices are virtual credits and resolution is illustrative — not betting, wagering, or financial advice.
How this market works
- Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and represent the implied probability of the outcome. A YES price of 55¢ means the market implies a 55% chance of YES.
- Each correct share settles at 100¢ when the market resolves. Buy at 55¢ and, if YES is right, you gain 45¢ per share.
- Your trades move the price: buying pushes a side up, selling pushes it down. You can sell any time before close to lock in gains or cut losses.
- The AI estimate is an independent model view. When it differs from the market price, that gap is the “AI edge” shown above.
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