Will a major new agreement be reached at the next climate summit?
Negotiations often yield incremental statements rather than binding breakthroughs.
Price history
Order book
Simulated depth around the current price.
Recent activity
Market Intelligence
AI verdict: Lean NOA major new climate-summit agreement is possible but remains slightly less likely than not, as the market and AI estimate both reflect the historical tendency toward incremental rather than binding outcomes.
Risk & quality signals
Momentum 0 — flat
What's driving it
- Negotiating track recordNO · 75
Climate summits frequently produce consensus declarations and limited implementation advances, while major agreements require difficult alignment among many key
- Broad multilateral stakesYES · 45
High political visibility and ongoing climate pressure create incentives for countries to deliver a meaningful shared outcome rather than leave empty-handed.
- Ambiguous threshold— · 55
Whether an outcome qualifies as a 'major new agreement' depends on its scope, commitments, and legal force, making the resolution standard materially uncertain.
- Current market signals— · 35
The 35% price is unchanged, with zero momentum and low volatility, indicating no current market evidence of a shift toward a breakthrough.
Why it moved
There has been no price movement: the YES price remains 35%, matching the existing AI estimate, while low volatility (6/100), neutral momentum, and moderate cumulative virtual volume (592 credits) suggest participants do
Watch-outs
- A coordinated pre-summit diplomatic push or a high-profile climate event could raise the odds of an unexpectedly broad,
- A weak definition of 'major new agreement' could allow a political declaration or financing package to resolve YES.
- Geopolitical disputes, finance disagreements, or resistance to stronger fossil-fuel language could prevent consensus and
AI-generated intelligence for a paper-trading simulation. Scores are derived from live market data; the analysis is an independent model view that refreshes as the market moves. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
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Paper-trading simulation. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
How this market resolves
Resolves YES if, by the resolution date, the outcome described above is confirmed true by the settlement source. Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Resolution date
- December 10, 2026
- Category
- Climate
- Settlement source
- NOAA / NASA / Copernicus official datasets
This is a paper-trading simulation. Prices are virtual credits and resolution is illustrative — not betting, wagering, or financial advice.
How this market works
- Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and represent the implied probability of the outcome. A YES price of 35¢ means the market implies a 35% chance of YES.
- Each correct share settles at 100¢ when the market resolves. Buy at 35¢ and, if YES is right, you gain 65¢ per share.
- Your trades move the price: buying pushes a side up, selling pushes it down. You can sell any time before close to lock in gains or cut losses.
- The AI estimate is an independent model view. When it differs from the market price, that gap is the “AI edge” shown above.
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