Will ETH have a higher percentage return than BTC this quarter?
Resolves YES if ETH/USD percentage change exceeds BTC/USD percentage change over the quarter.
Price history
Order book
Simulated depth around the current price.
Recent activity
Market Intelligence
AI verdict: Lean NOETH slightly trails a coin-flip chance of outperforming BTC this quarter, with the liquid market and negative recent YES momentum modestly favoring BTC relative strength.
Risk & quality signals
Momentum 30 toward NO
What's driving it
- Market consensusNO · 78
The 44% YES price is a direct, reasonably liquid estimate that ETH will not beat BTC, and it matches the existing 44% AI estimate.
- Recent relative momentumNO · 62
YES fell from 47% to 44% and the derived momentum is -30, indicating a recent shift toward BTC outperforming ETH.
- Liquidity and signal stabilityNO · 48
Liquidity is relatively high at 71/100 while volatility is only 18/100, making the modest BTC-favoring repricing more informative than a thin-market swing.
- ETH upside asymmetryYES · 31
ETH can outperform BTC during a broad risk-on or altcoin-led crypto move, leaving meaningful upside to YES despite the current relative-performance lean.
Why it moved
The 3-point decline in YES is consistent with traders modestly marking down ETH's relative-return outlook; with 964 virtual credits of cumulative volume, 71/100 liquidity, and low reported volatility, it appears more a c
Watch-outs
- A renewed crypto risk-on phase or ETH-specific catalyst could quickly favor ETH's typically higher-beta profile.
- The question does not specify a fixed close time, so the remaining horizon and starting reference point materially limit
- Low reported volatility may reverse if crypto volatility expands later in the quarter.
AI-generated intelligence for a paper-trading simulation. Scores are derived from live market data; the analysis is an independent model view that refreshes as the market moves. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
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Paper-trading simulation. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
How this market resolves
Resolves YES if, by the resolution date, the outcome described above is confirmed true by the settlement source. Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Resolution date
- When the underlying event concludes
- Category
- Crypto
- Settlement source
- Volume-weighted price across major exchanges (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken)
This is a paper-trading simulation. Prices are virtual credits and resolution is illustrative — not betting, wagering, or financial advice.
How this market works
- Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and represent the implied probability of the outcome. A YES price of 44¢ means the market implies a 44% chance of YES.
- Each correct share settles at 100¢ when the market resolves. Buy at 44¢ and, if YES is right, you gain 56¢ per share.
- Your trades move the price: buying pushes a side up, selling pushes it down. You can sell any time before close to lock in gains or cut losses.
- The AI estimate is an independent model view. When it differs from the market price, that gap is the “AI edge” shown above.
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