Will Bitcoin close above $100,000 on Dec 31?
Resolves YES if the BTC/USD spot price is above $100,000 at 23:59 UTC on December 31.
Price history
Order book
Simulated depth around the current price.
Recent activity
Market Intelligence
AI verdict: Lean YESBTC has a modestly favorable but far from decisive chance of finishing above $100,000, with the market’s 62% pricing broadly consistent with the available signals.
Risk & quality signals
Momentum 20 toward YES
What's driving it
- Market consensusYES · 35
The 62% YES price is the strongest available aggregate signal and indicates participants currently see an above-$100,000 close as more likely than not.
- Positive momentumYES · 24
The derived momentum reading of +20 points toward YES, supporting a modest upward directional bias rather than a strong breakout signal.
- Low reported volatility— · 20
Volatility of 17/100 suggests relatively contained recent movement, which limits both immediate upside follow-through and downside disruption absent a new shock
- Settlement-level uncertaintyNO · 21
The contract depends on one specific 23:59 UTC spot print on December 31, so even a broadly constructive BTC path can fail if price is near the threshold at the
Why it moved
The 2-point rise from 60% to 62% appears consistent with the positive momentum reading and is not contradicted by the relatively liquid 74/100 market; however, with only 1,482 virtual credits of cumulative volume and no
Watch-outs
- The year and remaining time to the December 31 settlement are not specified, materially limiting horizon-based precision
- BTC could trade near $100,000 at settlement, making the outcome highly sensitive to ordinary late-session moves and spot
AI-generated intelligence for a paper-trading simulation. Scores are derived from live market data; the analysis is an independent model view that refreshes as the market moves. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
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Paper-trading simulation. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
How this market resolves
Resolves YES if, by the resolution date, the outcome described above is confirmed true by the settlement source. Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Resolution date
- When the underlying event concludes
- Category
- Crypto
- Settlement source
- Volume-weighted price across major exchanges (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken)
This is a paper-trading simulation. Prices are virtual credits and resolution is illustrative — not betting, wagering, or financial advice.
How this market works
- Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and represent the implied probability of the outcome. A YES price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance of YES.
- Each correct share settles at 100¢ when the market resolves. Buy at 62¢ and, if YES is right, you gain 38¢ per share.
- Your trades move the price: buying pushes a side up, selling pushes it down. You can sell any time before close to lock in gains or cut losses.
- The AI estimate is an independent model view. When it differs from the market price, that gap is the “AI edge” shown above.
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