Will total crypto market capitalization exceed $4 trillion this year?
Resolves YES if aggregate crypto market cap prints above $4,000,000,000,000 this calendar year.
Price history
Order book
Simulated depth around the current price.
Recent activity
Market Intelligence
AI verdict: Toss-upThe outcome is close to a coin flip, but the recent negative momentum and lack of a stated current market-cap level or calendar runway leave YES modestly below 50%.
Risk & quality signals
Momentum 30 toward NO
What's driving it
- Market consensus— · 80
The 49% YES price and existing 49% AI estimate indicate that available market information currently supports an essentially even split.
- Recent momentumNO · 55
Price fell 3 points from 52% to 49% and the derived momentum reading is -30, signaling a recent shift away from the $4 trillion outcome.
- Volatility regime— · 45
Volatility of 17/100 suggests relatively limited near-term repricing pressure, which reduces both immediate breakout and collapse signals.
- Threshold distance and time uncertaintyNO · 70
Whether $4 trillion is reachable depends heavily on the current aggregate market cap and remaining calendar time, neither of which is provided, so the threshold
Why it moved
The 3-point decline appears consistent with modest bearish positioning or reduced confidence rather than a high-conviction repricing: virtual volume is only 639 credits, volatility is low, and the current price remains 1
Watch-outs
- A broad crypto rally led by Bitcoin, major altcoins, or improved risk appetite could push total market cap above the $4T
AI-generated intelligence for a paper-trading simulation. Scores are derived from live market data; the analysis is an independent model view that refreshes as the market moves. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
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Paper-trading simulation. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
How this market resolves
Resolves YES if, by the resolution date, the outcome described above is confirmed true by the settlement source. Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Resolution date
- When the underlying event concludes
- Category
- Crypto
- Settlement source
- Volume-weighted price across major exchanges (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken)
This is a paper-trading simulation. Prices are virtual credits and resolution is illustrative — not betting, wagering, or financial advice.
How this market works
- Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and represent the implied probability of the outcome. A YES price of 49¢ means the market implies a 49% chance of YES.
- Each correct share settles at 100¢ when the market resolves. Buy at 49¢ and, if YES is right, you gain 51¢ per share.
- Your trades move the price: buying pushes a side up, selling pushes it down. You can sell any time before close to lock in gains or cut losses.
- The AI estimate is an independent model view. When it differs from the market price, that gap is the “AI edge” shown above.
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