Will early voting set a new record in the next major national election?
Early-vote share has trended up cycle over cycle; expanded access supports a modest YES lean.
Price history
Order book
Simulated depth around the current price.
Recent activity
Market Intelligence
AI verdict: Lean YESYES is a modest favorite because early voting has generally expanded across recent cycles, but the undefined record metric and state-level policy variation keep confidence limited.
Risk & quality signals
Momentum 0 — flat
What's driving it
- Long-run early-vote adoptionYES · 72
The stated cycle-over-cycle increase in early-vote share provides the clearest support for another record in the next major national election.
- Access and administrationYES · 58
Broader availability of mail and in-person early voting in many jurisdictions supports continued high participation before Election Day.
- Record-definition uncertaintyNO · 66
Whether the record means total ballots, share of ballots, or a comparable-election benchmark can materially change the result, especially with turnout and rules
- Policy and turnout variationNO · 48
Restrictions, legal changes, voter behavior shifts, or unusually high Election Day turnout in key states could prevent a new aggregate record.
Why it moved
The price is unchanged at 57%, matching the prior price and existing AI estimate, while zero momentum and low volatility indicate no new market-wide signal; relatively high liquidity and 3,573 credits of virtual volume.
Watch-outs
- The market does not specify the exact early-voting metric or comparison baseline.
- A record in raw ballots could occur without a record share, and vice versa.
- Election-specific turnout changes can dominate the underlying adoption trend.
- State rule changes or administrative capacity constraints could reduce early-vote availability.
AI-generated intelligence for a paper-trading simulation. Scores are derived from live market data; the analysis is an independent model view that refreshes as the market moves. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
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Paper-trading simulation. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
How this market resolves
Resolves YES if, by the resolution date, the outcome described above is confirmed true by the settlement source. Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Resolution date
- November 20, 2026
- Category
- Elections
- Settlement source
- Certified results from official electoral authorities
This is a paper-trading simulation. Prices are virtual credits and resolution is illustrative — not betting, wagering, or financial advice.
How this market works
- Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and represent the implied probability of the outcome. A YES price of 57¢ means the market implies a 57% chance of YES.
- Each correct share settles at 100¢ when the market resolves. Buy at 57¢ and, if YES is right, you gain 43¢ per share.
- Your trades move the price: buying pushes a side up, selling pushes it down. You can sell any time before close to lock in gains or cut losses.
- The AI estimate is an independent model view. When it differs from the market price, that gap is the “AI edge” shown above.
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