Will a sitting incumbent lose a party primary this cycle?
Incumbents usually survive primaries; a handful of vulnerable seats keep the tail alive.
Price history
Order book
Simulated depth around the current price.
Recent activity
Market Intelligence
AI verdict: Strong NOA sitting incumbent losing a party primary remains a meaningful but below-one-in-four tail risk, with strong incumbency advantages offset by the large number of potential contests across the cycle.
Risk & quality signals
Momentum 0 — flat
What's driving it
- Incumbency advantageNO · 38
Officeholders generally benefit from name recognition, fundraising, party networks, and voter familiarity, making successful primary challenges uncommon.
- Many opportunities for an upsetYES · 27
If the market covers the full election cycle rather than one specified race, even a small per-incumbent upset rate can produce at least one loss.
- Long runway to primariesYES · 18
The December 2026 resolution leaves substantial time for retirements, scandals, ideological challenges, and district-specific shocks to create a viable contest.
- Stable market consensus— · 17
The price is unchanged at 22%, matching the existing AI estimate, while high liquidity (76/100) and low volatility (9/100) suggest no currently recognized broad
Why it moved
There was no price movement: the 22% market price remains aligned with the prior price and existing AI estimate, and the combination of moderate cumulative volume (2,071 credits), high liquidity, and low volatility is a
Watch-outs
- The market’s exact definition of “sitting incumbent,” eligible offices, party primaries, and how vacancies or runoffs/ir
AI-generated intelligence for a paper-trading simulation. Scores are derived from live market data; the analysis is an independent model view that refreshes as the market moves. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
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Paper-trading simulation. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
How this market resolves
Resolves YES if, by the resolution date, the outcome described above is confirmed true by the settlement source. Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Resolution date
- December 10, 2026
- Category
- Elections
- Settlement source
- Certified results from official electoral authorities
This is a paper-trading simulation. Prices are virtual credits and resolution is illustrative — not betting, wagering, or financial advice.
How this market works
- Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and represent the implied probability of the outcome. A YES price of 22¢ means the market implies a 22% chance of YES.
- Each correct share settles at 100¢ when the market resolves. Buy at 22¢ and, if YES is right, you gain 78¢ per share.
- Your trades move the price: buying pushes a side up, selling pushes it down. You can sell any time before close to lock in gains or cut losses.
- The AI estimate is an independent model view. When it differs from the market price, that gap is the “AI edge” shown above.
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