Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?82%Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?97%-0.7Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 21?83%+81.0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?99%
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?100%-0.4Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?97%+21.3Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?51%-6.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 21?99%+87.5Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?100%Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 21?84%+14.8Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?84%
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?99%+5.9
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?60%+2.3Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?93%+1.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 21?100%+3.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 21?100%Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 21?100%+30.9Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?95%-5.1Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?95%+52.3Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?96%-1.0
RussiaWill United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
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About this market
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
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