Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?82%Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?97%-0.7Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 21?83%+81.0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?99%
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?100%-0.4Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?97%+21.3Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?51%-6.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 21?99%+87.5Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?100%Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 21?84%+14.8Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?84%
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?99%+5.9
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?60%+2.3Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?93%+1.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 21?100%+3.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 21?100%Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 21?100%+30.9Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?95%-5.1Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?95%+52.3Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?96%-1.0
BrazilWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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About this market
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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