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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?82%Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?97%-0.7Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 21?83%+81.0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?99%
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?100%-0.4Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?97%+21.3Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?51%-6.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 21?99%+87.5Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?100%Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 21?84%+14.8Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?84%
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?99%+5.9
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?60%+2.3Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?93%+1.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 21?100%+3.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 21?100%Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 21?100%+30.9Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?95%-5.1Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?95%+52.3Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?96%-1.0
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?82%Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?97%-0.7Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 21?83%+81.0Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?99%Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?100%-0.4Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?97%+21.3Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?51%-6.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 21?99%+87.5Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?100%Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 21?84%+14.8Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?84%Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?99%+5.9Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?60%+2.3Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?93%+1.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 21?100%+3.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 21?100%Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 21?100%+30.9Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?95%-5.1Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?95%+52.3Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?96%-1.0
LiveOtherGermany
GermanyFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
No
82.0%-0.5
24h volume$317K
Liquidity$85K
ClosesEnds Jan 1
Live odds history
Yes81.5¢
Sep 14Sep 21
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
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