Will the year's top film gross over $1B worldwide?
A strong tentpole slate makes a billion-dollar hit plausible but not guaranteed.
Price history
Order book
Simulated depth around the current price.
Recent activity
Market Intelligence
AI verdict: Lean YESYES is more likely than not because a $1B worldwide leader has been common in normal theatrical years and a strong 2026 tentpole slate provides multiple potential paths to clear the threshold.
Risk & quality signals
Momentum 0 — flat
What's driving it
- Historical box-office thresholdYES · 82
In recent non-disrupted theatrical years, the worldwide top-grossing film has generally exceeded $1B, making this a relatively low bar for the annual leader.
- Multiple tentpole candidatesYES · 72
A strong slate reduces dependence on any one release, since several franchise, sequel, or event-film candidates could become the year's leader.
- Execution and audience uncertaintyNO · 52
A crowded slate, uneven reviews, franchise fatigue, regional-market weakness, or release delays could leave the top film below $1B even if individual titles are
- Market positioning and activity— · 28
The 42% price is unchanged, with zero momentum and modest cumulative virtual volume, so the market does not show a recent conviction-building move in either方向.
Why it moved
There has been no price movement: the 42% market price matches the prior price and existing AI estimate, while low volatility and zero momentum suggest participants have not received or acted on a decisive new signal; 4,
Watch-outs
- One or more major releases could be delayed out of 2026 or materially underperform.
- Worldwide grosses depend heavily on international markets, exchange rates, release access, and local competition.
- The market may be pricing a stricter interpretation of the relevant calendar-year or worldwide-gross reporting cutoff.
- The static 42% price could reflect informed skepticism not captured by the broad historical base rate.
AI-generated intelligence for a paper-trading simulation. Scores are derived from live market data; the analysis is an independent model view that refreshes as the market moves. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
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Paper-trading simulation. Informational only — not betting or financial advice.
How this market resolves
Resolves YES if, by the resolution date, the outcome described above is confirmed true by the settlement source. Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Resolution date
- December 30, 2026
- Category
- Culture
- Settlement source
- Official box-office, chart, and platform reporting
This is a paper-trading simulation. Prices are virtual credits and resolution is illustrative — not betting, wagering, or financial advice.
How this market works
- Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and represent the implied probability of the outcome. A YES price of 42¢ means the market implies a 42% chance of YES.
- Each correct share settles at 100¢ when the market resolves. Buy at 42¢ and, if YES is right, you gain 58¢ per share.
- Your trades move the price: buying pushes a side up, selling pushes it down. You can sell any time before close to lock in gains or cut losses.
- The AI estimate is an independent model view. When it differs from the market price, that gap is the “AI edge” shown above.
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