Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?81%+3.0Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?97%-0.7Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 21?98%+95.3
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?100%-0.7Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?98%+24.0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?51%-6.0Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?99%Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 21?100%+87.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 21?100%Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 21?69%+30.8Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?100%
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?99%+5.4
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?92%-1.0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?60%+2.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 21?100%+33.32026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House92%+2.0Sao Paulo Open: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Nadia Podoroska56%-11.0Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage59%Singapore Open: Storm Hunter vs Joanna Garland79%-30.0Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?93%+0.1
IranIran leadership change by September 30?
Live odds history
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Related markets
WorldRussia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
WorldWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
WorldUS x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?
WorldUS x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
WorldNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Odds reflect real prediction-market prices and are for informational purposes only. 1.ML is not a betting operator.