US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?84%-20.8National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Blockx100%US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?80%-4.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?99%-0.6Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?100%National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti54%-3.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?52%-5.0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?98%+0.5Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies95%-20.9Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.576%-31.0Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox62%+23.5National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang95%+2.0Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha100%+56.5Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs FURIA Esports - Map 1 Winner100%+55.5Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?83%+2.0Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?85%-1.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?99%-0.3Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals60%-7.0Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?99%-0.2Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?99%-26.3Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?76%-5.0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Live odds history
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
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