National Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Alex de Minaur100%Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?87%Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?100%+0.1Iran flagUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?82%-19.4Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Joblife (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins100%-63.4Iran flagUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?78%-7.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?99%-0.6Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?100%Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?52%-5.0United States flagWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?98%+0.4National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Blockx88%Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners100%+53.4Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs FURIA Esports - Map 1 Winner100%+55.5United States flagWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?83%+2.0Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies87%-12.0Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha100%+56.5National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang94%+0.5Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?85%-2.0Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves60%-0.5United States flagWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?99%-0.3Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-08-06?100%+37.5National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti55%-3.0United States flagWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?99%-0.2National Bank Open: Jessica Pegula vs Kamilla Rakhimova100%+17.9
All markets
LiveWorldIsrael flagIsrael

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

Yes
96.2%+4.7
24h volume$160K
Liquidity$79K
ClosesEnds Aug 9

Live odds history

Yes93.5¢
0255075100
Aug 1Aug 6

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Related markets

Odds reflect real prediction-market prices and are for informational purposes only. 1.ML is not a betting operator.