Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?88%+2.0Nets vs. Mavericks97%-22.4Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?100%Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.557%+4.0Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?63%+17.0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?94%+0.1Will T1 win Worlds 2026?100%-16.4Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?99%-0.8Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?98%+0.7Spread: Bears (-5.5)78%+25.5
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?91%+3.5Flyers vs. Flames76%+25.0Buccaneers vs. Bears: O/U 46.572%+17.0
IranIran leadership change by November 30?
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About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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