Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?86%-4.0Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?100%+37.1Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?91%+4.0Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks96%+44.4Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?100%-36.4
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?93%+4.6
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?100%+0.1Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres72%-20.0Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels74%-29.0Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?100%Monterrey Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Diane Parry76%Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?68%+3.0Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?99%+0.1US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?61%+11.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?63%+5.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?68%-2.0Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?97%-0.2Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury96%+40.8Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85%-1.0US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?100%+0.4Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?100%-22.9US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?84%+10.0US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?96%+3.0US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?90%+8.0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?93%+4.6Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?100%+0.1Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres72%-20.0Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels74%-29.0Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?100%Monterrey Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Diane Parry76%Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?68%+3.0Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?99%+0.1US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?61%+11.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?63%+5.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?68%-2.0Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?97%-0.2Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury96%+40.8Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85%-1.0US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?100%+0.4Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?100%-22.9US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?84%+10.0US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?96%+3.0US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?90%+8.0
LiveWorld
Taiwan
TaiwanWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No
96.1%+0.1
24h volume$192K
Liquidity$562K
ClosesEnds Dec 31
Live odds history
Yes96.1¢
Aug 19Aug 26
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Odds reflect real prediction-market prices and are for informational purposes only. 1.ML is not a betting operator.